By Stephen Groves
In 1779, Patrick Henry drew a gerrymandered map for the Commonwealth’s 5th Congressional District to keep his political rival James Madison out of office. Things haven’t changed much since then.
As candidates declare for the 2011 House of Delegates and state Senate elections, uncertainty hangs in the air. Redistricting leaves many wondering in what district they will be running.
Every 10 years, the General Assembly must adjust the districts for the House of Delegates, the state Senate, and the House of Representatives to match up with population numbers.
In Virginia, the General Assembly rushes through the process because new districts have to be approved for the looming summer primaries. Once Virginia gets the official data from the census in February or March, they must pass new districts and have it approved by the Department of Justice in a few months. This leaves many potential candidates wondering what their new district will look like.
“It’s a lot of time, it’s a lot of money, and I’m not interested in doing it unless I have a realistic chance,” said Stephen Heretick, a city councilman from Portsmouth who is considering a run for the state Senate in 2011.
While a handful of candidates have announced their intentions to run, the state parties are busy finding candidates to run.
“[Local party leaders] constantly have their ear to the ground,” said Garren Shipley, spokesperson for the Republican Party of Virginia. “They’re trying to find people who will be good for office.”
Both the GOP and the Democratic Party said they were looking at picking up seats in the next elections, but all their strategy is based on speculation for now.
“We don’t know what the legislative districts look like and who's going to be living in what district until the final maps are drawn,” said Brian Coy, spokesperson for the Democratic Party of Virginia. “These are questions we need to have answers to before we move forward.”
Heretick will be one of those watching the redistricting process closely. He said if the new district causes Sen. Fred Quayle, R- Suffolk, a five-term incumbent, to retire, he would consider entering the election. But the chance of incumbents giving up many seats is slim, said political analyst Isaac Wood of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
“Typically the way it works is if one party can’t steamroll their plan through, they try to protect incumbents,” he said.
As state lawmakers draw the lines for the next 10 years during March and April, they are also drawing the lines for their votes in elections that are only months away.
Redistricting can “severe the democratic link” because “legislators pick their own voters,” Wood said.
For the first time in modern-history, the General Assembly will be split during redistricting. A Republican-held House will have to work with a Democratic-held Senate. Many expect a “gentleman’s agreement between the House and Senate,” said Heretick. The House would approve the Senate’s plan, and the Senate would return the favor.
But many lawmakers and political analysts say this is not healthy for democracy. As both parties have created gerrymandered maps to protect their party, the number of competitive races for the General Assembly is “shockingly low,” writes Ken Stroupe of the University of Virginia Center for Politics in Gerrymandering’s Long History in Virginia.
This results in low voter turnout because voters feel they have little choice at the polls.
Some lawmakers have set out to change this by creating a bi-partisan redistricting committee. But time is running out on creating such a committee.
In the last legislative session, a bill passed the Senate, but was shot down in the House. Although Gov. Bob McDonnell supported such a commission during his campaign, he shied away from the issue when it was in the General Assembly.
For now, the state will wait for the census numbers and the politics that will draw the lines.
Democrats in Virginia are looking forward to having the boundaries of the blatantly gerrymandered third district redrawn. Republicans have two major priorities: protecting the seat of House majority leader Cantor, and carving up the Charlottesville metro area so that there is no chance of the tail wagging the dog in future contests. Lesser Republican concerns are that any changes to the 2nd district are likely to favor the Democrats and that changes to 10th district lines could put that seat in play when Frank Wolf (at 71, our oldest congressman) decides to retire.